Ben Wallace’s hope of being next Nato chief may be defeated by failure to up defence spending

Jeremy Hunt must commit to a big boost in defence spending in next week’s Budget or Ben Wallace will stand no chance of becoming Nato’s next chief, alliance sources have warned.

The defence secretary is one of the candidates to replace Jens Stoltenberg as Nato secretary general this autumn.

Securing the post would be a coup for Britain after Brexit and Mr Wallace has said the job would be a “great” one to have.

But despite Mr Wallace being well-regarded, and the UK’s leadership over Ukraine, there are widespread concerns over the state of the British Army after years of under-investment.

“Everyone noticed what Wallace has been saying about the defence spending,” one Nato source said.

“If he doesn’t get a good increase, it is likely that the next secretary general will come from elsewhere. Other countries are increasing their defence spending in a serious way.”

The Chancellor is expected to raise defence spending by just £5 billion, which is far less than the up to £11 billion over the next two years Mr Wallace wants just to keep pace with inflation.

The former soldier has been vocal in calling for funding for the army. He called for defence spending to match 3 per cent of GDP by 2030 before walking that back after the pound tanked.

In January, Sky News reported that a senior US general had told Mr Wallace privately that the British Army was no longer seen as a top-class fighting force.

Backing from Washington, which refrains from putting forward an American candidate for the role, is a prerequisite to get the top job at Nato.

Similar opinions have been echoed in private by French officials on the fringes of Nato meetings.

Senior Whitehall figures were downbeat about Mr Wallace’s chances of getting the job but said this had nothing to do with the defence spending settlement.

They expected the next Nato secretary general to be a woman or from an Eastern European country.

The Minister of Defence refused to comment but an ally of Mr Wallace said they believed he had a “good chance” of getting the job.

“Ben Wallace has been behind so much of what we did right in relation to Ukraine,” the ally said. “Nato needs someone who understands what the Russian threat looks like.”

The UK is expected to announce a modest increase in defence spending next week before the Budget on March 15.

Meanwhile, countries such as France, Germany and Poland have already set out ambitious plans to dramatically increase spending.

In January, Emmanuel Macron announced that French defence spending would increase by a third. The 2024-2030 budget will be €413 billion (about £366 billion), up from €295 billion (£261 billion) in 2019-2025.

Germany has announced a €100 billion (£88.5 billion) fund to revamp its army after the invasion of Ukraine. Its defence minister wants an additional €10 billion (£8.85 billion) increase in the defence budget in 2024 to help refill depleted ammunition stocks.

The first Nato source said that France would prefer the next chief to come from an EU country.

The source suggested that the next Nato boss could be Polish. Poland, which borders Ukraine, has been one of the toughest countries on Moscow and is also embarking on a major overhaul of its armed forces and weapons spending spree.

There is no formal process for recruiting the next top official, which relies on the alliance’s 30 members to reach a consensus. Discussions are likely to begin this summer.

There has also been speculation linking Estonia’s prime minister, who would be the first female secretary general, to the post.  

Kaja Kallas has been one of Vladimir Putin’s fiercest critics in the EU and Nato. Last week she won a landslide victory in Estonia’s general election, which may make her reluctant to take the job.

Some member states fear handing the job to a Baltic or Polish leader could generate too much hostility with Russia.

Slovakian president Zuzana Caputova, Lithuania’s prime minister Ingrida Simonyte, and former Croatian president Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic are other names to be mentioned.

Chrystia Freeland, the deputy prime minister of Canada, reportedly has US backing. She has Ukrainian heritage and is fluent in both Ukrainian and Russian.

Other names linked to the job include Mark Rutte, the prime minister of the Netherlands,

Mr Stoltenberg’s mandate as Nato’s secretary general is due to come to an end in September after almost a decade in the role.

Some member countries have called on the Norwegian to remain in post until the war in Ukraine is over.